After Osama Bin Laden…

„One question is whether the Osama killing will lead to intelligence that will help track down Zawahri and other Al Qaeda leaders or operatives, whether in Pakistan or elsewhere in the world. It might also help work out terror financing networks. Imagine the effort to go through Osama’s laptop. Will there be a reprisal attack by Al Qaeda? Maybe. But after all Al Qaeda has already been trying to hit us. It’s not as if it has shown any restraint.

The larger challenge is whether we can press this gain and further dismantle Al Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. If so, it may be easier to end the Afghan war by working out a deal in Afghanistan between the Karzai government and the Taliban. For while they are noxious in a thousand ways, the Taliban themselves are inward looking and not linked to foreign terrorism except through their hosting of Al Qaeda; if foreign fighters like bin Laden are out of the picture, an agreement becomes more feasible. The United States and Afghan governments alike pretty much believe that the only way out of the problems in Afghanistan is some kind of a political deal, in which the Taliban stops fighting and joins the government, and in turn is allowed a measure of influence in Pashtun areas. That will be more feasible if bin Laden is gone — and if other foreign fighters also fade from the scene.

Of course, allowing the Taliban a role in southern Afghanistan raises all kinds of questions, not least the impact on Afghan women. The Taliban would be a catastrophe for Afghan women. On the other hand, the war is also a catastrophe for Afghan women. And there are some indications that the Taliban are willing to compromise on some elements of policy toward women, such as girls’ schooling. That would all have to be negotiated. Finally, what does this mean for President Obama’s political prospects? I don’t think very much. November 2012 is a long way away, and the main political issue is likely to be the economy. After all, George H.W. Bush was a hero after the Gulf War victory in early 1991, and by Nov. 1992 was defeated by Bill Clinton because of the economic slowdown.”