The Libya puzzle

„The botched defection several months ago of Musa Kusa, Libya’s former foreign minister, illustrates the uncertain strategy that has plagued the NATO campaign against Col. Moammar Gaddafi. But even so, the Gaddafi regime is feeling enough pressure to send an emissary to Washington this week to explore a possible negotiated settlement. Kusa, a prominent member of Gaddafi’s inner circle, fled to Britain on March 30. His departure was initially touted as a major blow to the Libyan regime. But new details suggest it was an ill-planned rush job that has backfired. Kusa left Britain in mid-April and is now under wraps in Doha, Qatar.

The financial assumptions in the Libya strategy may need reexamination, too. The White House had hoped that by this summer Gaddafi’s regime would be running low on money and would begin to implode. But one insider says the Libyan strongman still has a stash of about $10 billion in the country.

What has emerged is a stalemate between Gaddafi’s military forces and the rebel movement, calling itself the Transitional National Council, headquartered in Benghazi. Neither the rebels nor their NATO backers have had much success in encouraging powerful tribes to switch allegiance — which, analysts say, is the key to regime change there. The United States, France and other countries hope to tip the balance toward the TNC by recognizing it as the official representative of the Libyan people. But that has been a paper title, so far, and the TNC has been unable to lure enough reconcilable members of Gaddafi’s circle to form a coalition government.”