We have already started to see the shift of high-labor work from China to other countries such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico. I anticipate companies and countries will continue this trend; it just may not be so evident since it is more of a long-term strategy.
How, in your view, could this longer-term supply chain shift affect business in Europe as well as the European, especially the Central-European region?
In my western viewpoint, I see EU Member States’ relations with China as very diverse and full of individual priorities created by bilateral interactions, with Germany and France as the most influential players. China dominates these interactions. I think a joint EU policy framework is needed to rebalance the relationship with China.
In addition, establishing a new supply chain requires much time and investment, so while labor may be cheaper elsewhere, unit costs in the new country need to be accounted for, which often end up being higher. Thus, considering moving is not the same as actually moving.
China has a firm hold on certain industries, such as electronics, keeping efficiencies unparalleled.
Firms tend to move assembly rather than production first. If the E.U. wants to play the game, they need to cohesively learn the Chinese rules of the game.
Many are of the opinions that economic globalization began to decline and digitization could provide new opportunities with businesses. How do you see this trend?
I think many people assume that digitization equals automation, which in turn, equals loss of jobs. What I think is that the world is extremely complex, and that is not happening anytime soon.
Digitization has boosted economic growth in two main ways.
First, companies have seen a major reduction in transportation and communication costs. Second, many new careers, such as data scientists, have emerged. What is critical is to stay ahead of the trend and capitalize on its potential.
Nike is a great example of the use of digitization to its advantage via a digital supplier network. Early in the pandemic, they were able to view their contract manufacturing and inventory network, and reroute in-transit goods to e-commerce warehouses. They did this in conjunction with a shift in their marketing strategy to focus on in-stock products. This agility buffered the impact on their sales.