The ICC has jurisdiction over genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of Ukraine. This was created by Ukraine’s execution of two Article 12(3) declarations.
Thus, the ICC has opened an investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed in Ukraine,
and this could well result in the eventual issuance of arrest warrants.
However,
the ICC does not have jurisdiction over the crime of aggression
which has a different jurisdictional regime. In 2010, there was a carve-out created in the ICC’s jurisdiction over the crime of aggression (at US insistence) that limits it from applying to the nationals of, or crime committed on the territory of, a state that is not a party to the ICC’s Rome Statute, such as Russia and Belarus. Otherwise, the ICC would have been able to open an investigation into aggression in Ukraine, along with its current investigation.
National courts may also eventually play a role, as many countries have war crimes as well as the crime of aggression in their domestic laws, some with universal jurisdiction. However, aggression (at least in the Rome Statute’s definition) is a “leadership crime,” so that it applies to high level political or military leaders. Such individuals may well have immunities that would attach in cases before domestic courts.
How do you see the procedure with the crime of the aggression?
In this present case, the U.N. General Assembly declared that an act of aggression has occurred with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, any political or military leader who planed, prepared, initiated, or executed the invasion is committing, or has committed, the crime of aggression. The difficulty is where to prosecute the crime. If the U.N. Security Council were not paralyzed by Russia’s veto, then the Security Council could simply refer the situation in Ukraine to the ICC, which would permit the Prosecutor to include the crime of aggression in the investigation and allow its prosecution before the ICC.
Given the extreme improbability of a U.N. Security Council referral, there are proposals being made for establishing an ad hoc tribunal to prosecute aggression in the territory of Ukraine. Obviously, due to the veto power, such a tribunal cannot be created through the U.N. Security Council as were the Yugoslav and Rwanda Tribunals.
The best way an ad hoc tribunal could be created would be if the U.N. and Ukraine agree to such a tribunal