The upsides of Egypt's revolution

„Imagine an Egypt that consistently opposes the West in international forums while relentlessly campaigning against Israel. A government that seeds its media with vile anti-Semitism, locks relations with Israel in a cold freeze and makes a habit of publicly rejecting »interference« in its affairs by the United States. A regime that allows Hamas to import tons of munitions and Iranian rockets into the Gaza Strip.

That would be the government of Hosni Mubarak - the same one that the United States propped up with tens of billions of dollars in aid, at the cost of tarnishing America's image among democrats and a frustrated young generation across the Middle East. If Egypt now makes a transition to genuine democracy, its foreign policy might not get much better from Washington's point of view. But it is unlikely to get worse.

In fact, the gloomy speculation about a possible Islamic takeover or the loss of U.S. influence ignores the more likely upsides of Egypt's revolution. As in Asia and Latin America after their democratic transitions, the United States will gain more than it loses from the spread of freedom in the Middle East. In the end, the benefits could be huge. The first will be the exposure of a 30-year-fraud perpetrated by Mubarak's regime. That was the notion that unconditional U.S. military aid and tolerance of autocracy was the inescapable price for Egypt's perpetuation of a peace treaty with Israel, its »help« with Hamas and its »support« for the Middle East peace process.”