„Iraq has since 2008 retreated from the brink of collapse, though it still remains perilously close to the precipice. There are daily attacks, such as the explosion in Baghdad on 17 August 2010 which targeted a queue of young men waiting to apply to join the army. At the same time, violence has greatly receded, allowing the state some opportunity to resume its functions.
However, the real threat to Iraq’s future continues to be its current ruling elite, which has demonstrated beyond question its unwillingness and inability to seize that opportunity by improving living standards for the vast majority of the population. The result is that Iraq’s bureaucracy, its public sector and its environment amongst other things remain in a dangerous state of decline. Barring a miracle, the state will quickly lose whatever legitimacy it has managed to salvage from the wreckage of the civil conflict of the mid-2000s, opening the door to new and reinvigorated challenges.
During conversations with friends, colleagues and relatives, in each of my recent visits to Iraq, there was an undeniable sense of disappointment with the manner in which the state has evolved since 2003, and a weary disinterest in the government formation talks that are currently ongoing in Baghdad. It is an open question as to whether the country’s recently elected parliament, and the government that has yet to be formed, will be capable of meeting these challenges. Based on their current track record, the prospects appear very dim.”