„Kim Jong Il’s third son, Kim Jong Un, will receive an important post in order to build his credentials and pave the way for him to lead a third generation of family rule. Unlike Kim Jong Il at the time of his succession, Kim Jong Un will most likely not be given a position in the military. It would be a hard sell that the 28-year-old heir apparent would have the credentials to take on a post in the country’s top establishment.
It is surprising that Kim Jong Il waited until he had a stroke to start preparations for his succession (his father Kim Il Sung was in great health at 68 when he started the process). Did Kim Jong Il’s hubris put the family dynasty in jeopardy, or does he have someone else in mind for the post?
After all, Chang Song Taek’s recent appointment to vice chairman of the National Defense Commission in the Supreme People's Assembly and his likely promotion to a top post in the Politburo and the Party Secretariat indicate that Kim Jong Il has better prepared his brother-in-law for the post than his own son. While this opens the possibility that Chang will be the next leader of North Korea, it is more likely that he will jointly rule with Kim Jong Un in the near term, until the apprentice is ready to rule by himself.
To be sure, the Dear Leader has put the succession process on the fast track by circulating photos of him and his son and will use the party conference as a platform to build the cult of personality around the youngest Kim. After all, there is nothing North Korean rulers love more than throwing excessive celebrations to excite the masses about Kim family rule.”